With the 91st Academy Awards around the corner I thought I’d try my hand at predicting this year’s winners and losers. The Oscars tend to throw up many suprises but I’ve tried to predict what I think will happen on Sunday night. I have not predicted the short films and documentaries as I do not know enough about them to make a comment about them.
Best Adapted Screenplay –
Who I Think Will Win – BlacKkKlansman
Who I Think Should Win – If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman is the most likely to take this award as a nod to Spike Lee who will not take home any of the other awards of the night, meaning the Academy will give him this award to make it up for it. However, it should If Beale Street Could Talk that wins, but for some reason the Academy seem to have ignored it entirely.
Best Orignal Screenplay –
Who I Think Will Win – Green Book
Who I Think Should Win – First Reformed
For a while The Favourite was – no pun intended – the favourite to win this award, and backed by a strong award season it should still be the case. However, a recent push for Green Book has left it having a much stronger possibility of taking home some of the big awards of the night. First Reformed, a hugely overlooked film in a majority of categories, should take home the prize, but it will go to Green Book, or the Favourite, most likely the former at this point.
Best Original Score –
Who I Think Will Win – If Beale Street Could Talk
Who I Think Should Win – If Beale Street Could Talk
This is the one award I can see If Beale Street Could Talk winning. The score has often been beaten by Justin Hurwitz’s First Man score throughout Awards Season, however, with First Man not being nominated, Nicholas Britell seems certain to win his first Oscar, unless Black Panther swoops in and takes the award with voters having seen that film over If Beale Street Could Talk.
Best Original Song
Who I Think Will Win – Shallow
Who I Think Should Win – All The Stars
If Shallow doesn’t win Best Song it will be one of the biggest shock in years, it’s won every other award possible and is guaranteed for the Oscar, with big support from it even winning a Grammy. Although, I would’ve preferred to see All The Stars win.
Best Animated Feature Film –
Who I Think Will Win – Spiderman: Into the Spider Verse
Who I Think Should Win – Spiderman: Into the Spider Verse
One of the best animated features in recent times, Spiderman had a chance of being nominated for Best Picture, being only the fourth animated feature to do so, but missed out. However, it won’t miss out on this award and is a certainty to take home the prize.
Best Foreign Language Film –
Who I Think Will Win – Roma
Who I Think Should Win – Roma
On first glance this seems like a simple choice, with Roma being nominated for Best Picture, surely it must win. However, should Roma take Best Picture, the Academy voters may decide to reward Cold War as Roma has taken its prize, however, that is unlikely, and Roma will win. This is one of the strongest categories, with Roma, Cold War and Shotplifters all being worthy of Best Picture nominations, with only the former being nominated.
Best Supporting Actress –
Who I Think Will Win – Amy Adams
Who I Think Should Win – Regina King
The supporting actress category has four genuine contenders to take home the prize and could go in any direction. No actress has taken control of award season, with Regina King, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz and Amy Adams taking home their fair share of prizes throughout award season. However, I can see Amy Adams, possibly the least favourite out of the four frontrunners, taking home the prize, given her many previous nominations without a win. Not only that, but If Beale Street Could Talk has not been very popular with the Academy, with only three nominations, making Regina King’s chances smaller, and Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz both already taking home Oscars previously.
Best Supporting Actor –
Who I Think Will Win – Mahershala Ali
Who I Think Should Win – Mahershala Ali
After winning every award conceivably possible during award season, there is not a single doubt that Mahershala Ali will take home his second Oscar in three years. Richard E. Grant has garnered some support for his role in Can You Ever Forgive Me? but it is not enough to stop Ali winning. This category is a foregone conclusion and almost not worth discussion.
Best Production Design
Who I Think Will Win – Black Panther
Who I Think Should Win – Black Panther
This is the one category that I think Black Panther deserves to win. They are definitely the favourite to win with the film’s ability to create a new world, and it has won an array of awards and is the only one I can see taking home the prize on the night, barring a suprise Bohemian Rhapsody win for its Production value on scenes such as the Live Aid scene.
Best Costume Design
Who I Think Will Win – Black Panther
Who I Think Should Win – The Ballad of Buster Scuggs
Another award that Black Panther will take home, it has been rewarded for its production and costume throughout award season and that won’t stop here, the Academy have clearly loved the film, and are going to reward it with a number of Oscars this year, although I would have much preferred to see The Ballad of Buster Scruggs take home a prize.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Who I Think Will Win – Vice
Who I Think Should Win – Vice
This is the one category that Vice will be rewarded in, and obviously so, one of they key features of the film was Bale’s transformation into Dick Cheney. Mary Queen of Scots has a chance, but this is the one category that the Academy can actually give an award to Vice, and they will do so.
Best Sound Mixing
Who I Think Will Win – Bohemian Rhapsody
Who I Think Should Win – First Man
Bohemian Rhapsody will take this home on the night simply because of it being a music biopic, and the Live Aid scene. Voters will want to reward that scene, and the film, and this is one of the best categories to do so, and with First Man’s lack of nominations throughout, it seems it’s not very popular with the academy.
Best Sound Editing
Who I Think Will Win – Black Panther
Who I Think Should Win – A Quiet Place
This is one of the many awards that I can see Black Panther taking home on the night, with Sound Editing being such a wide open category I can see Black Panther coming through and taking home the prize. However, Bohemian Rhapsody could take it too, but I think in this category Black Panther has more of a push. I would’ve liked to see A Quiet Place win as their use of sound was the most impressive.
Best Visual Effects
Who I Think Will Win – Black Panther
Who I Think Should Win – Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther has been rewarded frequently with Visual Effects awards and will certainly take home this prize, although Avengers should win this, it does not have the same support from the Academy as Black Panther, and will lose out on this award.
Best Film Editing
Who I Think Will Win – Bohemian Rhapsody
Who I Think Should Win – Vice
Film editing is a very close contest with different films winning throughout award season. The last time a film that won best editing went on to win Best Picture was Argo in 2013, and with each nominee being nominated for Best Picture this trend might stop, which would lend itself towards The Favourite or Green Book winning, however, Bohemian Rhapsody will take home the prize for its Live Aid Scene, although it should not win. The whole category is the weakest it has been in a long time, though.
Best Cinematography –
Who I Think Will Win – Roma
Who I Think Should Win – Roma
This is the one category that Roma is a dead on to win, it has won the majority of awards over award season. The only other possibility would be Cold War taking the prize as the Academy does not want Netflix’s films to take the prizes, however, that is highly unlikely, and Alfonso Cuarón will definitely take home the prize for Cinematography alongside Directing.
And now the Big Four…
Best Actress –
Who I Think Will Win – Glenn Close
Who I Think Should Win – Olivia Colman
Both frontrunners for this award, Glenn Close and Olivia Colman, have won numerous awards throughout awards season. The odds have swung both ways but at this point Glenn Close is the most likely, given her success over awards season, and her long career in the film industry, it is more than likely going to end up going to Close, although both have very good chances of taking home the prize.
Best Actor –
Who I think Will Win – Rami Malek
Who I think should win – Christian Bale
Rami Malek is almost a certainty to win this award now after his recent awards. At one point this was a closely thought battle between Malek and Bale, but critics have adored Malek’s performance, along with audiences too, and have constantly pushed for his success. Viggo Mortensen seems to have more chance of winning at this point than Bale, who could only realistically win in a vote for him as a person over the years, who has not yet won Best Leading Actor, which the Academy often do, but the push for Malek is too strong at this point, and he will, unfortunately, take home the prize over Bale, who put in a masterful performance as Dick Cheney. A key problem for Bale is that people don’t like Cheney, whereas Freddie Mercury is widely adored, making his chances every smaller.
Best Director –
Who I think Will Win – Alfonso Cuarón
Who I think should win – Alfonso Cuarón
This is one of the categories that is almost a certainty at this point. Alfonso
Cuarón has won almost every single award possible for directing, and there is no way he is going to lose this. The only possible outcome in which he doesn’t win would be if Spike Lee secures the award due to his lack of appreciation over the years, however, this has not really received any sort of push with all the focus being on Cuarón, and rightly so, he thoroughly deserves the award and it is one of the few categories I would gladly back heavily.
And finally…
Best Picture –
Who I Think Will Win – Green Book
Who I Think Should Win – Roma
For a while this category seemed a forgone conclusion, however, as we get closer to the Oscars things continue to drastically change. Green Book’s success at the Golden Globe’s and the PGA’s, alongside its recent campaign push leaves it with a strong possibility of taking home the biggest award of the night. Roma, at one point, seemed almost certain to claim victory, however, due to the Oscars preferential voting system for best picture, Roma is unlikely to gain 50% of the vote, meaning that the second preferred film is then taken into account on each voters ballot, and it his highly likely that Green Book will swoop in and secure the victory this way. Roma certainly deserves the reward, and still is a strong favourite, but the Oscars throw up many surprises, and I think this may be one of them.